For the first time in more than two years, the Conservatives are ahead in a national voting intention poll. The first of my weekly telephone surveys has found a two-point Tory lead: Conservative 34%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 9%, UKIP 15%.

It's the 'year-end' at Westminster and despite this parliament just coming up to its two-year mark this is the first 'year-end' we've had. Normally we go a year and then a new Queen's Speech heralds the start of a new session. The first session has been a marathon 24 months simply to accommodate lots of complex legislation.